Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/14/2013 -- BMI View: We maintain the view that risk-averse pharmaceutical, healthcare and medical device companies should avoid Uzbekistan. While the country has a definite need for pharmaceuticals and medical devices, the regulatory environment remains opaque and state-dominated. Moreover, the government is committed to boosting Uzbekistan's domestic capacity for pharmaceutical manufacturing, which is expected to gradually decrease market potential for most generic medicines.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: UZS853.25bn (US$498mn) in 2011 to UZS993.00bn (US$563mn) in 2012; up 16.4% in local currency terms and 13.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.
- Healthcare: UZS4,081bn (US$2.38bn) in 2011 to UZS4,932bn (US$2.79bn) in 2012; up 20.8% in local currency terms and 17.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.
- Medical devices: UZS155.82bn (US$91mn) in 2011 to UZS179.45bn (US$102mn) in 2012; up 15.2% in local currency terms and 11.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.

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Risk/Reward Ratings: Uzbekistan's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) for Q113 is 39.6 out of 100. The composite score, unchanged in relation to the previous quarter, again makes the country the least attractive out of the 20 key markets surveyed in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Uzbekistan scores below the regional average for all indicators in the proprietary ranking system and we do not expect this situation to improve in the medium term.

Key Trends And Developments

- Uzbekistan plans to invest US$290.5mn in FY2012/13 to develop the nation's pharmaceutical industry, said Mirzanazim Dusmuratov, the chairperson of the board of the Uzpharmasanoat state joint-stock concern, in August 2012. Uzbekistan's pharmaceutical industry will implement 39 new investment projects for producing 30 new generic drugs for the prevention and treatment of socially significant and socially dangerous diseases. There is a high demand for such products, which are imported into the country primarily through import contracts.

BMI Economic View: We anticipate Uzbekistan's economic growth trajectory to remain strong in 2012 and 2013, in spite of a mild slowdown in export growth. High prices for key commodity exports and continued public investment into strategic sectors will underpin robust growth in Central Asia. We forecast real GDP growth at 7.8% in 2012 and 7.6% in 2013 - down from an estimated 8.3% in 2011.

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