Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Venezuela Information Technology Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/30/2013 -- We have has revised Venezuela IT forecasts and there remain downside risks due to macroeconomic factors. In 2013, much will depend on the economic and political situation, especially since the death of President Hugo Chavez and its impact on business confidence. We see little change to the overall outlook, as Chavez's appointed successor has won the election and is likely to keep policies intact. Our forecast also takes into account the threat of a further devaluation of the bolivar. Venezuela is one of the smaller markets in its region, but a PC penetration rate of around 20% indicates the underlying potential for growth. Government PC programmes will boost sales, although most units will be procured locally.
Headline Expenditure Projections
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Computer hardware sales: From VEB5.6bn in 2012 to VEB8.6bn in 2013. Given a difficult trading context, the main long-term sales driver is greater affordability, partly as a result of cheap computer programmes, while the PCs for schools programmes is another market driver.
Software sales: From VEB1.5bn in 2012 to VEB2.3bn in 2013. The government's commitment to open source software will constrain opportunities for proprietary software vendors.
IT services sales: From VEB1.3bn in 2012 to VEB2.0bn in 2013. About 75% of demand will come from large companies, with the oil sector still significant despite the fall in oil prices.
Venezuela's score of 48.6 out of 100.0 keeps it in last place in our rankings, reflecting our view that the economic situation and business environment in the country are unfavourable for IT spending growth.
Key Trends & Developments
- We believe that high inflation, a lack of investment into the productive sectors of the economy and an upcoming local currency devaluation will lead to slower growth in 2013. However, Venezuelan computer shipments are likely to receive support from the government's affordable computer programmes, computers for education initiatives and more local production of inexpensive computers.
- The death of President Hugo Chavez is unlikely to see any change in support for open-source software. The promotion of open source software is a core Venezuelan government IT policy, although the government has said open-source adoption by public sector organisations has been hindered by 'worker opposition'. In April 2012, the Venezuelan government's IT centre CNTI signed an agreement with internal auditing watchdog Sunai to monitor the migration to open source software. The agreement will last for two years.
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