Fast Market Research

Vietnam Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - New Market Report Now Available

New Country Reports market report from Business Monitor International: "Vietnam Business Forecast Report Q4 2012"


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/11/2012 -- Core Views Recent data suggest economic activity will continue to moderate in coming quarters. We believe that uncertainties over unemployment in the manufacturing sector and corporate earnings will prompt households and businesses to cut back on spending and investment, resulting in overall weak domestic demand growth over the coming months. We expect a moderation in Vietnam's real GDP growth from 5.9% in 2011 to 5.2% in 2012. Credit conditions continue to remain tight despite the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)'s 200 basis points (bps) of rate cuts since March. We believe that high lending rates will continue to keep demand-pull inflationary pressures in check over the coming months and we see another 200bps of rate cuts by the SBV, bringing the policy rate from 13.00% at present to 11.00% by the end of the year. The Vietnamese government's plan to slash corporate income tax for small- and medium-sized enterprises by 30% and defer VAT payments for six months is expected to place significant pressure on the government's finances. We are forecasting budget deficits of 4.1% and 4.8 of GDP in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Major Forecast Changes We have downgraded our real GDP growth forecast from 5.8% to 5.2% for 2012. We see increasing evidence that total public expenditure will exceed the government's allocated budget this year, resulting in budget deficits of 4.1% and 4.8 of GDP in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Key Risks To Outlook Downside Growth Risks From Rising Commodity Prices: Should commodity prices witness a strong rebound in 2012, we could see the central bank adopting a more hawkish stance on monetary policy. Delays in normalising interest rates would present significant downside risks to economic growth. Further Deterioration In External Demand: Despite multiple devaluations since late 2009, Vietnam's trade deficit has witnessed a steady improvement. However, should we fail to see a sustained improvement in the trade balance, we would not be surprised to see the Vietnamese dong coming under further selling pressures.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents

About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

Browse all Country Reports research reports at Fast Market Research

You may also be interested in these related reports:

- Philippines Business Forecast Report Q4 2012
- Bulgaria Business Forecast Report Q4 2012
- Switzerland Business Forecast Report Q4 2012
- Singapore Business Forecast Report Q4 2012
- Poland Business Forecast Report Q4 2012
- Malaysia Business Forecast Report Q4 2012
- Kazakhstan & Central Asia Business Forecast Report Q4 2012
- China Business Forecast Report Q4 2012
- Croatia Business Forecast Report Q4 2012
- Slovakia Business Forecast Report Q4 2012