Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/25/2013 -- Vietnam's real GDP growth accelerated from 5.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q312 to 5.4% in Q412, reinforcing our view that the economy is poised for a robust recovery in H113. Also, Vietnam's trade surplus expanded in February 2013, amid a sharp decline in imports. Exports surpassed imports by US $900mn in February, after a revised US$776mn in January, according to preliminary figures released by the General Statistics Office. Imports fell to US$6.6bn in February from a revised US$10.7bn in January, while exports slipped to US$7.5bn from a revised US$11.5bn over the same period.

Over the past two years, Vietnam's infrastructure sector has largely been off the radar among foreign investors, meaning that the country's freight industry has perhaps had cause to feel a little neglected. This is despite numerous project opportunities cropping up. Latest estimates from the Vietnam Ministry of Planning indicate that Vietnam needs around US$160bn being made available for infrastructure development between 2013 and 2020.

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The lack of a comprehensive PPP framework, decade-low economic activity and slowdown in project financing from European banks due to the European sovereign-debt crisis have exposed deep fault-lines in the country's business environment for infrastructure. These frailties include excessive investment in certain infrastructure segments (ie, roads, cement), slow land clearances, poor planning, high levels of corruption and a weak regulatory environment.

Although these business environment issues are far from resolved, we believe that improving economic conditions and a willingness by the Vietnamese government to resolve some of the underlying drivers for these frailties are improving the investment climate for infrastructure and, by extension, the Vietnamese freight industry.

Headline Industry Data

- 2013 rail freight tonnage is set to increase by 4.12% to 7.29mn tonnes.
- 2013 air freight tonnage is forecast to rise by 13.64% to 203,080 tonnes.
- Tonnage handled at the Port of Ho Chi Minh City in 2013 is forecast to grow 7.56%, whereas tonnage handled at the Port of Da Nang is forecast to increase 4.26%.
- 2013 road freight tonnage is forecast to grow by 11.7% to 820.5mn tonnes.
- 2013 total trade is forecast to rise by 5.60%.

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