Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/03/2014 -- Latest data released by the General Statistics office of Vietnam (GSO) showed that real GDP accelerated by 5.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q1 2014, slightly faster than the 4.9% print registered in the Q1 2013. Although it showed a deceleration from 6.0% recorded in Q4 2013, we believe that the economy is still on track to hit our 2014 growth forecast of 5.9% in 2014. This would mark a slight acceleration from the 5.4% registered in 2013, and is above estimates by the Asian Development Bank, which forecasts real GDP to reach 5.6% in 2014.
We believe that the economy will be driven by a strengthening of private consumption, continued foreign direct investment into key areas of the economy, a more robust external sector, and a rebound in manufacturing activity over the coming quarters. That said, trend growth for the Vietnamese economy will average a slower 6.2% over the next decade, compared to 6.5% recorded in the past 10 years.
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Growth across the Vietnamese freight mix is set to be healthy in 2014 with the outperformer in terms of y-o-y gains in tonnage throughput pencilled in to be the shipping sector where the Port of Da Nang will enjoy annual growth of 7.00%. Road freight with growth of more than 6% will also perform well, while the air and rail modes fall behind slightly on 3.00% and 3.12% respectively during 2014.
Headline Industry Data
- 2014 rail freight tonnage is set to increase by 3.12% to 6.73mn tonnes.
- 2014 air freight tonnage is forecast to rise by 3.00% to 189,210 tonnes.
- Tonnage handled at the Port of Ho Chi Minh City in 2014 is forecast to grow 6.06%, whereas tonnage handled at the Port of Da Nang is forecast to increase 7.00%.
- 2014 road freight tonnage is forecast to grow by 6.01% to 811.04mn tonnes.
- 2014 total trade is forecast to rise by 6.55%.
Key Industry Trends
World Bank Calls For Better Vietnamese Logistics : The World Bank has declared that enhanced freight logistics in Vietnam could benefit the country's economy. Between 1990 and...
The Vietnam Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Vietnam Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Vietnamese freight transport and logistics industry.
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