New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/22/2014 -- We have downgraded Vietnam's growth forecast from 5.9% to 5.7% in 2014 on the back of weaker-than-expected H1 2014 growth numbers, combined with the risk of a an economic backlash from China ( see 'Political Tensions Pose Downside Risks To Growth', June 10). . That said, we have maintained our forecast for growth to come in at 6.4% in 2015, and we continue to believe that the economy will be driven by growth supportive government policies, as well as a strong outlook for foreign investment and exports. This is welcome news to the country's freight industry.
Real GDP growth came in at 5.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q214, according to the General Statistics Office (GSO), bringing growth for the first half of the year to 5.2% y-o-y. This marks an acceleration when compared to the 4.9% registered in the first half of 2013, and chimes with our view that the economy will continue to accelerate into 2014 and 2015. Growth was predominantly driven by strength the services sector as well as the industry and construction sectors, which contributed 2.6 and 2.1 percentage points respectively to growth.
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Although we see strong growth ahead, we have revised down our growth forecast for 2014 from 5.9% to 5.7% on the back of a slightly weaker than expected first half of the year, combined with the potential for an economic backlash from the ongoing political dispute with China ( see 'Political Tensions Pose Downside Risks To Growth', June 10). That said, we have kept our 2015 real GDP growth forecast unchanged at 6.4%.
We are sticking to the majority of our forecasts from last quarter, with the sole exception of the Port of Ho Chi Minh City, which we have slightly upgraded. Therefore, growth across the Vietnamese freight mix is set to be fairly healthy this year with road freight set to be the outperformer in annual gains terms at 6.01%. Meanwhile, rail and air freight will see y-o-y increases of 3.12% and 3.00% respectively.
Headline Industry Data
- 2014 rail freight tonnage is...
The Vietnam Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Vietnam Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Vietnamese freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Vietnam to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Vietnamese freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Vietnam.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
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