New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/14/2012 -- In May 2012, we reported that recent data suggest that economic activity will continue to moderate over the coming quarters in Vietnam, presenting significant downside risks to our already below-consensus forecast of 5.8% for real GDP growth in 2012. We have subsequently downgraded our real GDP growth forecast from 5.8% to 5.2% for 2012. Aside from this, the somewhat bleak picture is compounded by the fact that we continue to see external demand remaining subdued in the months ahead and we expect new exports orders to remain stagnant in 2012. This should in turn lead to an overall slowdown in net exports, adversely affecting Vietnam's shipping sector.
That said, both the port of Ho Chi Minh and the port of Da Nang are riding the headwinds for the time being at least, with strong growth set to occur at the former in terms of tonnage and box throughput, while the latter will enjoy healthy container throughput in 2012. This is set to continue in the mid term to 2016 and there are hopes that the so-called 'factory of Asia', as Vietnam has become known, will continue to see export potential buoy the shipping sector.
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Headline Industry Data
- 2012 tonnage throughput at the Port of Ho Chi Minh City is forecast to grow 7.44% to 35.94mn tonnes.
- 2012 tonnage throughput at the Port of Da Nang is forecast to increase 3.08% to 3.99mn tonnes.
- 2012 container throughput at the Port of Ho Chi Minh City is forecast to rise 7.87% to 3.21mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- 2012 container throughput at the Port of Da Nang is forecast to increase 7.60% to 123,060 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- 2012 total trade real growth is forecast to increase 6.23%.
Key Industry Trends
APMT Puts Cai Mep On The Map
APM Terminal (APMT) has to take credit for the strong start to 2012 enjoyed at Cai Mep due to the operator's onus on investment, attracting new clients operating on key trade routes in the process. BMI believes APMT's presence will support continued growth at the port over the medium term (2012-2016) as it continues to improve the port's facilities and attract shipping lines looking to capitalise on Vietnam's positive macroeconomic outlook.
Vinalines Cuts Newbuild Budget by A Third
The decision by Vietnam National Shipping Lines (Vinalines) to cut its spending on newbuilds is prudent, we believe, considering the current operating environment in the shipping industry, especially in the dry bulk sector. If Vinalines can correct some of the internal problems it has encountered of late and can endure the difficult operating environment over the medium term, it will be well positioned to take advantage of growing trade in the region over the longer term.
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