Lewes, DE -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/17/2015 -- Recent developments in the country's economic and business environments add further weight to our positive view on Vietnam's agribusiness sector. The industry holds strong growth opportunities in terms of production, exports and retail sales, particularly with regard to the rice, coffee, livestock and dairy sectors. Moreover, economic and financial integration in South East Asia will benefit Vietnam's exports of rice, dairy and coffee. However, Vietnam is facing growing competition in its key markets. The fulfilment of its promising potential will only be achieved if the country steps up its competitiveness and improves both product quality and supply chain efficiency. Vietnam will have to significantly ramp up investments on crop productivity in order to not be left behind and, if it does, it will be able to produce more value-added crops and maintain its status as an export spearhead.

Key Forecasts

- Rice consumption growth to 2019: 12.0% to 24.0mn tonnes. Rice remains the major food staple in Vietnam, and we do not see this changing over our forecast period. However, rising interest in other foods such as wheat-based goods - supported by growing affluence - will restrict demand for rice, and over the forecast period we expect production growth to significantly outpace that of consumption.

- Corn production growth to 2018/19: 32.3% to 6.8mn tonnes. Although acreage is likely to remain stagnant or diminish; current yield immaturity means significant gains are still available via this avenue, especially as robust local corn prices provide incentives to farmers. Domestic consumption will be another important driver.

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Due to the strong unions behind the industry, the government will need to work closely with private companies to lead the way in enforcing changes in the agriculture sector. The numerous free trade agreements signed in 2015, with the Trans Pacific Partnership being the most significant, signal to us that the agriculture industry is truly going through a much-needed transformation that will lead to increasing competitiveness with global agri-players. Other efforts, such as promoting high-value add food and beverages, also support our view.

Government-led efforts will benefit the industry over the longer term and help it to remain relevant. These include: the expansion of education and financial support for farmers to allow them entry into the food processing business; plans to modernise traditional methods of food production; the creation of new agricultural food districts for exporters; and the introduction of state designation of food exporting companies.

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Milk prices have remained low into H215, but production has increased regardless as dairy farmers take advantage of the end of the quota scheme. The Polish government is lobbying for EU support on behalf of the dairy industry, but in the long run it will take exploitation of overseas markets to secure the future wellbeing of the sub-sector. Grain yields will fall sharply on the back of this summer's drought, but our longer term view is for improved farming practices to continue to grow output per hectare. The livestock segment is adjusting to the fallout from Russian sanctions and the outbreak of African swine fever. We are now confident that pork and poultry producers will enjoy export-led growth, although low prices are a concern for pig farmers.

Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth to 2018/19: 5.3% to 10.0mn tonnes. Expansion in output will be relatively sluggish albeit coming from a high base.

- Pork consumption growth to 2019: 8.8% to 1.8mn tonnes. Demand for pork will grow in response to lower prices.

- 2015 real GDP growth: 3.5% (down from an estimated 3.6% in 2014; forecast to grow by an average of 4.0% annually 2015-2019).

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