Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Zambia Business Forecast Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/18/2013 -- Core Views
We expect that as copper production rebounds from a rather sluggish 2012, growth will accelerate. This will be bolstered by increased government spending, higher domestic investment as interest rates fall, and rising non-metal exports.
The political landscape has deteriorated, with accusations of increasing heavy-handedness and suppression of dissent by President Michael Sata's administration.
Major Forecast Changes
Based on better-than-expected non-metal exports and robust investment, we have increased our real growth estimates for 2012, along with our forecasts for 2013. We now expect the economy to expand by 7.3% in 2013, compared to our previous projections of 7.1%.
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We have downgraded our current account forecasts, based on anticipated lower copper prices and robust import growth. We now foresee a surplus of only 0.2% of GDP, compared to previous projections of 0.9%.
Key Risks To Outlook
The most salient risks to Zambia's economy stem from global economic developments, which directly impact the price of copper, Zambia's chief export, as well as the appetite for frontier market investment. If struggles in Europe, China, and other major markets are more or less pronounced than we currently anticipate, our forecasts will be rendered either too optimistic or too negative.
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