Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/29/2013 -- The Australian agriculture sector is recovering from a decade of subdued production growth due to extreme weather and a lack of investment. The industry is expected to remain buoyant in 2013/14, largely supported by export demand from Asia and higher prices for grains and oilseeds. In the longer term, we see major export growth opportunities in the sugar and livestock sectors. Although Australia will face stiff competition from Asian countries such as Thailand for sugar, and from the US and Brazil for meat, the country will remain a key player in those industries. As well as facing growing competition in its own region, Australia will very likely see high production costs and a vulnerability to extreme weather events.

Key Forecasts

- Beef consumption growth to 2017: 4.3% to 776,800 tonnes. Demand growth will be largely driven by population growth, as consumption per capita decrease over time due to health consciousness.
- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 25.2% to 4.6mn tonnes. Industry consolidation will encourage economies of scale and should boost output over the forecast period. Export opportunities to Asian countries will also support investment in the sector.
- Wheat production growth to 2016/17: -12.6% to 26.1mn tonnes. The decline will result from high base effects, as 2011/12 production was really strong. Although exports opportunities in Asia will incentivise to increase production, resources constraints will limit growth.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$23.76bn in 2013; down from US$27.47bn in 2012; growth expected to average -0.9% annually between 2012 and 2017.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 2.3%; down from 3.7% in 2012. Forecast to average 2.5% from 2013 to 2017.
- 2013 consumer price index: 1.9% average % change year-on-year (y-o-y); up from 1.7% in 2012. Forecast to average 2.3% from 2013 to 2017.
- 2013 central bank policy rate (average): 2.25%; down from 3.00% in 2012. Forecast to average 2.20% from 2013 to 2017.

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Key Revisions To Forecasts

- 2013/14 wheat production forecast revised down, to 24.0mn tonnes, compared with a previous estimate of 25.3mn tonnes, as below-average rainfall since mid-winter in parts of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia is hampering yields.
- 2013/14 sugar production forecast revised down, to 4.3mn tonnes, compared with a previous estimate of 4.4mn tonnes. This revision is due to flood damages to new plantings in early 2013 and lower average sugar yields, as the Bundaberg and Isis regions are being hit by the canopy syndrome disease.

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