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Colombia Agribusiness Report Q3 2013 - New Market Research Report

New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/14/2013 -- Colombia's agricultural sector faces a number of challenges in the medium term. Key export crops such as coffee and cocoa have underperformed in recent years owing to a lack of investment in infrastructure and serious outbreaks of disease. Although regeneration work is under way, it will take time to bear fruit. The strength of the Colombian peso against the US dollar is also posing challenges for the agribusiness sector as the competitiveness of Colombia's exports is being eroded. Finally, there is still unrest among dairy, livestock and grain producers who fear that the entry into force of the Colombia-EU free trade agreement in Q213 will further erode their profitability. The Ministry of Agriculture has taken steps to support these sectors to adapt to the arrival of inexpensive imports; however, ongoing efforts to improve infrastructure and modernise production techniques will be required.

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Key Forecasts

- Sugar consumption growth to 2017: 7.2% to 1.9mn tonnes. This will mainly be driven by increases in the consumption of confectionery products on the back of a rise in per capita incomes and population.
- Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 10.2% to 1.2mn tonnes. The consolidation of the sector will accelerate in the coming years, as poultry producers have faced difficult conditions over recent years, including soaring feed prices and sluggish demand.
- Coffee production growth to 2016/17: 36.5% to 10.5mn tonnes. Production will be aided by programmes to replace aging plantations and improve resistance to disease. However, we remain cautious about the long-term trajectory of Colombian coffee production, especially with prices currently low and given a strong Colombian peso.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$15.4bn in 2013; down from US$15.5bn in 2012; growth expected to average 2.7% annually between 2013 and 2017.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 4.3%; up from 4.0% in 2012. Forecast to average 4.5% from 2013 to 2017.
- 2013 consumer price index: 2.6%; down from 3.2% in 2012. Forecast to average 3.3% from 2013 to 2017.
- 2013 central bank policy rate (average): 3.00%; down from 4.25% in 2012. Forecast to average 4.15% from 2013 to 2017.

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