Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/07/2014 -- The consumer electronics market in Bulgaria has medium-term growth potential, with low penetration in most device categories meaning vendors can tap the first-time buyer and upgrade/ replacement market as incomes rise. As device prices decline and incomes rise we believe Bulgaria could be a regional outperformer over the medium term. However, in the short term we expect difficult trading conditions to persist in many segments of Bulgaria's consumer electronics market in 2013. The uncertain economic outlook continues to undermine consumer confidence, keeping household spending subdued.

Despite the challenges for vendors we expect growth areas in 2013 will include smartphones, flat-panel TV sets and low-cost Android tablets.

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Headline Expenditure Projections

Computer Sales: US$642mn in 2012 to US$670mn in 2013, +4.4% in US dollar terms. Slower sales of desktops and notebooks due to economic uncertainty and cannibalisation by tablets is limiting increases in market value.

AV Sales: US$363mn in 2012 to US$387mn in 2013, +7% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, with flat-panel TV sets expected to see the strongest growth. Handset Sales: US$264mn in 2012 to US$290mn in 2013, +10% in US dollar terms. The wider availability of affordable Android smartphones is driving the market as dumb and featurephone users upgrade.

Key Trends & Developments

- The PC market is being reshaped by the popularity of tablets. Low incomes and conservative, price-sensitive consumer culture meant sales of Apple's iPad were limited, but with the arrival of a range of affordable high spec Android tablets the market took off in 2012. The Multirama chain of consumer electronics retail stores reported a 50-fold increase in sales of tablets in 2012, and we expect strong unit growth to be maintained over the medium term.
- Sales of desktops and notebooks have been hit by the popularity of tablets in Bulgaria. Desktop and notebook sales volumes are in decline across Central and Eastern Europe, and forced firms to cut prices to protect volumes.
- BMI expects smartphones' share of revenue will equal that of 2G handsets by 2013, and to reach 70% by the end of our five-year forecast period to 2017. The key driver of smartphone growth in Bulgaria is the availability of mid-range smartphones (or featurephones), that have mass market appeal due to lower prices.

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