Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/23/2013 -- It is vital that the Pakistani government enforces regulations to ensure the rational prescription, dispensing and consumption of medicines. While on one hand medicine affordability levels are low, a study highlighting irrational drug use in the country is a cause for concern. As hospitals and doctors continue to be the primary access point to healthcare, and as access to medical services and pharmaceuticals improves over time, it is important that both public and private resources are directed towards the consumption of appropriate medicine regimens.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: PKR189.21bn (US$2.03bn) in 2012 to PRK209.55bn (US2.10bn) in 2013; +10.8% in local currency terms and +3.9% in US dollar terms.
- Healthcare: PKR521.91bn (US$5.59bn) in 2012 to PKR591.03bn (US$5.94bn) in 2013; +13.2% in local currency terms and +6.2% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Ratings: We continue to expect improving healthcare provision in Asia Pacific to bring opportunities for pharmaceutical and medical devices players due to a wider pool of patients. However, the success of these healthcare services depends on its implementation and subsequent monitoring. We highlight that not all countries will be able to succeed in their quest for better healthcare due to poor governance. Aligning with this, in BMI's Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) for Q413, Pakistan has maintained its poor rank of 15th out of the 19 markets in the regional matrix. Pakistan ranks below the regional averages for both composite Risk and Reward figures, in spite of its large and growing population.

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Key Trends & Developments

- In June 2013, the Pakistan Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association (PPMA) demanded the government immediately make the Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan (DRAP) a functional body and to appoint its chief on a permanent basis. The PPMA claims the pharmaceutical industry is facing hardships in delivering affordable and life-saving drugs to patients, which has resulted in a shortage of medicines.
- In June 2013, Bayer HealthCare Pakistan organised a symposium to raise awareness of stroke and atrial fibrillation. At the same time the company launched Xarelto in Pakistan.

BMI Economic View: Contrary to our expectations, the Pakistani economy witnessed a marked slowdown in growth last fiscal year (FY2012/13 [July-June]). Nonetheless, going forward, we cannot ignore the gradual build-up in economic momentum through FY2012/13, and the strong tailwinds that are in play (such as a more sustainable fiscal policy). As such, we project full-year real GDP growth to rebound to 4.0% this fiscal year, from 3.6% in FY2012/13. To be sure, we do not believe that the government's 4.4% projection is within reach, given the lingering difficulties posed by the energy crisis and the still-poor security environment.

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