Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/12/2013 -- BMI View: We remain of the opinion that Sweden's overall pharmaceutical market value will decline over the forecast period to 2016, both in local currency and US dollar terms. We base our view on patent expiration and cost containment policies, which will continue to stimulate consumption of cheaper generic medicines. Moreover, in the short term, weak consumer confidence in Sweden may affect the growth of its non-prescription market, while - in the longer-term - we expect a drop in consumers' willingness to consume non-reimbursed medicines.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: SEK42.84bn (US$6.60bn) in 2011 to SEK42.17bn (US$6.12bn) in 2012; - 1.6% in local currency terms and -7.2% in US dollar terms. Forecasts broadly in line with previous quarter.
- Healthcare: SEK327.00bn (US$50.36bn) in 2011 to SEK336.36bn (US$48.82bn) in 2012; +2.9% in local currency terms and -3.1% in US dollar terms. Forecasts broadly in line with previous quarter.
- Medical devices: SEK21.04bn (US$3.24bn) in 2011 to SEK21.86bn (US$3.17bn) in 2012; +3.9% in local currency terms and -2.1% in US dollar terms. Forecasts broadly in line with previous quarter.

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Risk/Reward Rating: In Q113 Pharmaceuticals Risk/Rewards Ratings for Western Europe, Sweden continues to rank fifth among the 10 key markets in the region, with an unchanged score of 67.6. Despite low growth, the country's strong regulatory environment, high per-capita pharmaceuticals expenditure and an increasingly ageing population will continue to attract multinationals to the country. However, we note there will be an increased focused on cost containment policies should healthcare cost escalate beyond what the government can fund.

Key Trends And Developments

- Further cementing its position within the industry, in the same month, Oriola KD's Swedish pharmaceutical wholesale business established a new purchasing and supply chain function to provide purchasing and logistics services to pharmacies. Oriola will provide purchasing, warehousing and distribution services for over-the-counter medicines and traded goods for 320 pharmacies (part of the pharmacy chains Medstop, Apoteksgruppen, DocMorris and Vardapoteket, which have a combined retail market share of 25%.

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