New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/19/2014 -- Growth Forecast Reduced For 2014
Since our last quarterly report we have reined in our outlook for Thailand. We now estimate 2013 GDP growth at 3.6% (reduced from 4.0%) and are forecasting 2014 growth at 3.8% (down from 4.5% earlier). Two main factors explain this adjustment. First, data for Q313 shows that cooling external demand has begun to have an impact on household spending and business investment. Second, an upsurge in political tensions in November/December 2013 has again increased worries over the country's immediate future.
Mass demonstrations against the 'red shirt' government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra by her 'yellow shirt' opponents eventually passed off without major violence. The Prime Minister, defeated in her attempt to pass an amnesty law and reform the Senate (steps seen as designed to prepare the return to Thailand of her controversial brother, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra) has instead called new elections for February 2014. This means that there will be a short-term pause before the country's prospects become clearer.
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In 2014, freight sector activity will be broadly in line with the pace of GDP and foreign trade growth. Road freight, rail freight, air freight and maritime cargo will all expand within the 1.0%-6.0% range. We note that foreign trade growth, at 5.0% in real terms, will outstrip GDP expansion of 3.8%.
Headline Industry Data
- Gross tonnage at Laem Chabang, the country's largest port, set to rise by 5.5%, to 48.01mn tonnes in 2014 (compared to the estimated 5.0% growth in 2013).
- At the Port of Bangkok, BMI now projects that tonnage growth will reach 4.2% growth in 2014 (marginally up from 4.1% in 2013), to 20.233mn tonnes.
- We now expect the real value of foreign trade to grow 5.0% in 2014, with imports up by 5.4% and exports up by a smaller amount, at 4.5%.
- 2014 air freight tonnage growth forecast at 3.5% and to average 3.6% a year to 2018.
- 2014 rail freight tonnage throughput forecast to grow by 3.9%, to 12.870mn tonnes, and to grow on average by 2.7% a year to 2018.
- Road freight tonnage expected to increase by 1.3% in 2014, to reach 444.196mn tonnes
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