SBWire

US light vehicle sales ended 2013 up 7.6% at 15.60mn, in line with BMI's forecast of an 8.2% increase to 15.68mn. With macroeconomic conditions largely favourable, we expect further growth, albeit slightly slower at 3.6%, to be achievable in 2014, taking the market back to 16mn units for the first time since 2007. We expect light trucks to continue to outperform the car segment, led by a slew of new product launches.

The Certificate of Entitlement (COE) bidding exercise on February 5 2014 was the first COE auction since the formal adoption of the revised COE category criteria (see 'New COE Regulation Could Reverse Sales Trends', September 17 2013). The outcome of the bidding, however, elicited surprise among some motor traders.

Singapore's role as a global transhipment hub is both its blessing and its curse. In times such as these, when key markets in Europe and the US are either recessionary or growing sluggishly, it can be hit by depleted freight volumes. In 2014 we forecast growth in both port and airport total tonnage volumes, albeit it will be sluggish. Both facilities are investing considerably, and we are confident of growth over the medium and long term.

Following a year in which BMI believes saw increasing volumes across the whole freight transport sector, 2014 will signal further growth in line with Romania's macroeconomic outlook.

The medium-term outlook for Iranian auto production remains cautiously optimistic, reflecting the temporary deal reached between the US and major powers over the future of its nuclear programme in November 2013. BMI's Country Risk team's core view remains that talks will continue over the coming years, with the potential for a long-term agreement to be found, although we cannot preclude a breakdown in talks over the coming quarters, which could unleash a Western military response. Over the very near term, there is the chance that the six-month interim arrangement agreed in November 2013, which expires on July 20 2014, could be extended by an additional six months should both parties agree.

We continue to see Indonesia undergoing an adjustment processs, which will see lower growth on the short term, as the authorities seek to cool and rebalance an economy that had overheated. Quarterly growth was below expectations in Q313, but then above expectations in Q413. Despite this fluctuation the economy in our view remains on a slight downtrend as efforts are made to narrow the current account deficit, squeeze out inflation, and tighten monetary policy. For full-year 2013, GDP growth was 5.8%, the lowest level in four years. We are forecasting a further slowing to 5.4% GDP growth in 2014 (no change compared to our last quarterly report), picking up to 6.5% growth in 2015.

The Israeli ports sector is undergoing a state of flux, with the major ports set to be expanded with new, privately operated, terminals, which will be able to handle the larger vessels that are becoming the norm on the key Asia-Europe trade route on which Israel stands. However, the developments are facing strong opposition from current port workers and unions. In terms of demand, moderate growth at Israel's containerhandling facilities should be supported by steady, though unspectacular, economic growth.

FP Mailing Solutions, the fastest-growing mailing systems vendor in the United States, has released an important update for its MailOne 2.0 software. The update will improve the software’s ability to support electronic U.S. Postal Service delivery confirmations.

The Dutch economy finally appeared to break out of recession during the third quarter of 2013, just as the eurozone recovery has shown signs of faltering. With domestic demand hit by falling house prices and a lack of appetite for fixed investment, the strength of global demand will be key to safeguarding the domestic recovery given the Netherlands' substantial current account surplus. We stress, however, that a continued deterioration in eurozone demand or insufficient monetary easing from the ECB pose key risks to our forecasts for 2014 which, among other industry sectors in the Netherlands, could end up having a detrimental effect on the country's freight industry.

Following a year which BMI believes saw slow or negative growth in the Czech Republic's freight transport, albeit better than the year before, 2014 will signal further improvement, although pre-downturn freight levels are still far from being recovered.

Following a year which BMI believes saw the slow recovery begin, 2014 will signal further growth across the whole freight transport sector in line with our macroeconomic forecasts for the country. Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 2.12% in 2014 following an estimated growth of 2.26% in 2013.

Despite the devastating result of Typhoon Yolanda on the Visayas (the impact of which was felt by the country's freight industry), the Philippines does have a lot going for it over the medium term. Political stability and prudent monetary and fiscal policies are all combining to inform BMI's optimistic outlook. Therefore, we have upgraded our 2014 real GDP growth forecast to 6.3% (from 6.0% previously), and also see scope for the economy's long-term trend growth rate to increase as long as the aforementioned factors remain in play.

In 2014, we forecast a 4.7% increase in vehicle sales in 2014. BMI forecasts a 4.6% increase in passenger car sales in 2014, chiefly on the back of low base effects from substantial declines in 2013, and pent-up demand from several years of sustained declines in the market and delayed purchasing decisions. As the monthly chart shows, sales volumes in the country were erratic over the year, and the market experienced both strong increases and decreases- we attribute this sharp January sales increase to low base effects, but believe the growth rate will temper somewhat over the year.

Romania - Q2 2014

In 2013, vehicle sales in France declined 5.4% on the back of a 5.7% fall in the passenger car segment and 3.9% fall in the CV segment. In 2014, we forecast a 2.2% increase in vehicle sales. This comes from a 2% forecasted uptick in the passenger car segment, and 3.2% increase in commercial vehicle (CV) sales.

Looking at trends for 2014 and beyond, BMI believes that the Bahraini auto market will continue to see strong and steady growth, with total sales set to near 65,000 per year by the end of our newly extended forecast period in 2018.

Despite concerns that early signs of a slowdown in the Canadian housing market provided a risk to growth in light truck sales, the segment carried total light vehicle sales to another year of positive growth in 2013 with the segment's sales up 6.9%. This contributed to growth of 4.0% for total light vehicles, which reached a record 1.74mn units, surpassing the last record set in 2002.

We forecast a continued moderation in Panamanian real GDP growth in 2014, as delays to the canal expansion project temper growth in the construction and communications and transport sectors. The freight industry also obviously has more than a close eye on proceedings at the Canal and the delays to expansion are causing a few raised eyebrows. Moreover, should an ongoing contract dispute over the canal expansion result in a prolonged work stoppage, it would pose downside risks to our real GDP growth forecast of 7.1% this year.

Final-year sales data for 2013 were unavailable as this report was being compiled. Consequently, BMI retains its current forecasts this quarter, although we have now extended our forecast period out to 2018. Overall, BMI retains an optimistic outlook on new vehicle sales in the UAE, forecasting further growth of over 25% over the 2014-2018 period.

Morocco's highly competitive production environment, government support towards manufacturing and its proximity to the high-volume European markets and high-growth potential African markets remain the main attractions for carmakers seeking production-related investments in the country. BMI accordingly sees production in Morocco rising considerably over our newly extended five-year forecast period, with a total completely built unit production of 155,074 in 2018. Our forecast for 2014 calls for 124,480 vehicles to be produced over the year, marking a 5.2% increase on 2013.

We still think there is reason to believe the situation will improve for carmakers based in Egypt in 2014, as the country's PMI reading for December 2013 of 52.0 was its joint second-highest in the 32 months of the survey's existence, following the record 52.5 in November, and only the eighth time it has exceeded 50. Coupled with Toyota Motor's assurance in late 2013 that it intends to commit to manufacturing in the country, this suggests a slightly more optimistic outlook going forward. While not giving more details or a timeframe, Toyota said in a statement to World Bulletin that it intends to expand globally including Egypt, 'with the expectation that Toyota will invest more in Egypt over the coming period'.

Weak Recovery Still Expected In 2014

The port of Hong Kong holds the top position in Hong Kong's maritime sector in terms of both total tonnage and container throughput. BMI believes it will demonstrate growth in 2014 after 2013 performance was hindered by a forty day strike, continued recession in the eurozone, the sluggish nature of US economic growth, the slowing outlook for the Chinese economy, the move of Chinese factories further inland and competition from the neighbouring port of Shenzhen.

Qannu is excited to announce the official launch of its Shopping Site. Located at Shopping.Qannu.com, the page is designed to enhance the online shopping experience for Australian shoppers through a streamlined, all-inclusive browsing experience. Australian consumers can proceed directly through the Qannu Shopping website and access the US-based retailer of their liking. Upon purchase, users will have their items shipped directly to Qannu’s warehouse location in Los Angeles. Once arrived, consumers can opt for immediate shipping of an individual product or to have the products consolidated with additional orders for savings on the total cost.

We forecast that growth in Brazil's freight transport volumes will outpace the Latin American giant's real GDP growth in 2014 and over our medium-term forecast period (2014-2018), across all modes. Continued growth in the BRIC nation's mining and agribusiness sectors will ensure that the road, rail and ports sectors will continue to experience healthy expansion, while air freight will benefit from the growing demands of the country's expanding middle class. Further, the sector will benefit from Brazil's role as a major exporter of a host of commodities.