SBWire

Though there have been signs over recent months that household consumption has recovered slightly, we remain fairly lukewarm in relation to Slovakia's near-term discretionary spending in the food and drink sector. Though easing slightly, unemployment remains above the 14% mark, while retail trade growth fell again in August 2013, having turned positive for the first time in 12 months in Q2 2013. Nevertheless, we expect the recovery in household spending to gain traction in 2014, and hold our forecast at 2.0%, implying a much more significant contribution of 1 percentage point to headline growth, which has relied solely on external demand since the economic crisis hit.

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BMI View: By some measures, the US farm sector is in the best financial conditions in decades. Farm and cash income in real terms are near 30-year highs, while financial leverage is at 50-year lows. The sector is also recovering from the droughts of 2012, although the grain sector should rebound faster than the livestock sector. However, the sector still faces concerns: Beef production will stagnate over the medium term, while we are forecasting a significant decline in cotton production for 2013/14. We have also revised lower our forecasts for pork production, beef consumption, and poultry production. The country's sugar sector is also suffering in the wake of lower average prices. Over the longer term, the sector will face some uncertainty as the Congress debates a new farm bill, and will have to adjust to a different subsidy program once a new bill is passed, along with lower crop prices. Nevertheless, we expect the US to remain the preeminent food producer and exporter in the world.

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Political instability and persistent militant activity will continue to hamper foreign direct investment (FDI) in Pakistan's food and drink industries, detracting all but the largest companies that can withstand such high risks. Nevertheless, we continue to view Pakistan as an important potential longer-term market, provided other factors allow for the rise of consumerism and the expansion of modern retail formats.

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We believe private consumption will be an important engine of growth in the years ahead. Although the relative stasis of the manufacturing industry has constrained job creation, consumption in Zimbabwe has continued to be supported by massive remittance inflows from a large diaspora population, and this is unlikely to change. Consumption will therefore be supported even in the absence of an improvement in domestic productivity.

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