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The November 2013 interim nuclear deal reached in Geneva has rightly been hailed as a significant development in the negotiations between Iran and the West, and marks a further improvement in the Islamic Republic's international position since the election of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in June 2013. However, it is crucial to note that the agreement does not lift sanctions on Iran's oil exports and does not allow for additional Iranian oil sales. Any significant easing of the oil export ban would only come as part of a broader, final settlement, which would be at a minimum 6-12 months away. For the moment therefore, the Iranian hydrocarbons sector remains largely impaired due to the ongoing sanctions. In terms of gas, we believe that Iran will not be able to increase production sufficiently to satisfy mounting domestic gas demand. This will translate into increasing gas shortages. Meanwhile, Iran is claiming a succession of major oil and gas discoveries that, if proven, demonstrate considerable upside potential to its existing resource base. In a bid to secure much-needed investment, Iran is offering improved terms to contracts long seen as uncompetitive by operators, but few national oil companies are likely to bite as long as sanctions are upheld.

The UAE's stable investment climate and its robust attempts to maximise the potential of its significant oil and natural gas reserves will continue to make it a major focus of upstream investment. This, in turn, will bring it closer to its target of increasing production to 3.6mn barrels per day (b/d) by 2019. We expect steady growth in oil and gas production over the course of our forecast period. Greater attempts at increasing energy efficiency, efforts to reduce waste and increasing natural gas production will be critical to limiting the UAE's import requirement as consumption continues to outstrip demand, even with some US $25bn set to be investment in gas projects in Abu Dhabi alone.

Brazil's massive pre-salt fields, such as Lula, Iracema and Franco, suggest substantial growth potential over the long term, underpinning our view that crude, natural gas and other liquids output will rise from an estimated 2.4mn b/d in 2013 to 4.0mn barrels per day (b/d) by 2023. That said, this is a modest downward revision from previous quarters, reflecting our view that the above-ground environment remains a considerable obstacle to both the country's upstream and downstream sectors. Indeed, muted interest in the country's first pre-salt round, such that there was ultimately only one consortium that bid, underscores the potential impact of Brazil's unfavourable licensing terms and burdensome regulatory environment.

Efforts to slow the decline rate of Norway's oil output are beginning to pay off, with the country registering a drop of 5.2% in 2013 over 2012. Despite this being less than previous years, Norway still registered its 12th consecutive year of oil decline. The gas outlook offers more stability with production expected to stabilise at over 100bn cubic metres (bcm) a year over the forecast. The country's excellent operating environment, combined with strong prospectivity in both mature and frontier basin areas are sustaining interest in the hydrocarbon sector. This is expected to drive a return to oil production growth by 2019. However, we note that growing industry costs, combined with limited incentives to develop marginal fields and improve recovery rates, could hinder investment and production growth in the forecast.

South Africa's oil and gas sector is set for growth, as an upsurge in exploration and the increasing prospectivity of the country's offshore acreage point towards considerable upside potential for the country's long-term upstream prospects. The country also has vast unconventional resource potential, and with growing political support lifting the moratorium on hydraulic fracturing, we could see shale development permits issued as early as H1 2014. However, the passage of the mineral and petroleum resources development bill has caused widespread unease in the industry, and deep regulatory uncertainty may cloud the country's long-term oil and gas outlook, unless the government can offer greater clarity to potential investors.

Bahrain is trying to double its oil production by the end of the decade. This increase would largely depend on the success of plans under way to raise production from the Bahrain field. However, our current forecast anticipates delays and technical difficulties and we have not yet included all volumes projected by the project. For the moment, we see crude production increasing from 46,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to 68,000b/d in 2023. However, the biggest attention in terms of investment is firmly on the downstream, where the Bahrain Petroleum Company (BAPCO) is planning to increase the capacity of the Kingdom's centrepiece Sitra refinery by approximately 90,000b/d - from 270,000b/d to 360,000b/d. Other plans envisage the construction of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving terminal, although this is still a long way from realisation. For the moment, the government will focus its efforts on upgrading its main refining units - the low-hanging fruit in its oil and gas infrastructure portfolio.

Algeria continues to dominate the African gas market. We expect that the country will progressively switch towards a higher proportion of LNG use for its exports as pipeline consumers in Europe are expected to see a flattening demand over the coming years. These exports will be fuelled by a steadily growing gas production, with projects such as Menzel Ledjmet Est, Touat, Ain Tsila, Reggane Nord and Timimoun set to come online in the next few years. Adoption of new hydrocarbons regulation in January 2013 could spur exploration in Algeria in the coming year, especially in offshore and unconventional acreages. We are, nonetheless, sceptical about the tax reform, which could prove burdensome for oil and gas producers.

There are glimmers of hope in the upstream oil and gas segment, with the Ascent-operated Petisovci tight gas scheme capable of improving near-term energy self-sufficiency and slowing the rate of growth in gas imports. However, overall volumes are likely to be relatively modest, with imported Russian gas set to dominate supply for the foreseeable future. Slovenia is opposed to proposals for an Adriatic LNG terminal that is backed by Italy. This puts the country at odds with EU energy policy in the region.

Colombia's energy sector seems to be headed for an inflection point over the medium term. In the past decade we have seen strong liquids production growth, buoyed by improvements to the business and security environment as well as favourable contract terms. However, a tendency toward smaller finds, as well as a recent uptick in attacks on pipelines has begun to suggest some downside pressure on production over the longer term. Unlocking the country's offshore and unconventional resource potential could be a crucial step in helping to bolster its proven reserve levels, supporting greater long-term production gains, though we note that right now such exploration is still at a nascent phase. This implies both significant upside and downside risks to the country's long-term liquids production and reserve growth forecasts.

Production in Libya will continue to be hit by domestic political and social instability in the short term and we note that unrest in the wider North African region will rock the oil and gas industry as well. Oil and gas production forecasts have been downwardly revised as a result of these developments, as political tensions are not likely to be resolved in early 2014. The deficit of greenfield investment, owing to political unrest, will spill over into the long term in the form of slower production growth, as Libya underperforms its raw hydrocarbon potential.

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Fuelled by the world's third largest proven conventional gas reserves, Qatar has positioned itself as the leading global exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Rising competition, led by liquefaction growth in Australia, the US and potentially East Africa, will pose a challenge to Qatar's hold on the global gas market later in the decade. Qatar is responding by making increasing efforts diversify its economy through expanding its downstream and petrochemical sectors. Furthermore, the country is growing the international presence of Qatar Petroleum International to offset what will likely be slow growth in domestic oil and gas revenues given the absence of plans for an expansion of LNG and GTL export capacity.

Opposition from environmentalists and the indigenous population, as well as guerrilla attacks on Peru's energy infrastructure have encouraged us to temper our optimistic stance on the country's hydrocarbons sector to a certain extent. That said, we still retain a positive view overall, forecasting that oil and gas production will expand noticeably over our forecast period given the underexplored nature of the energy sector and one of the more favourable business environment's in the region.

The outlook for Angola's oil and gas sector is positive. Although technical challenges led to production issues in 2013, we expect the start of major upstream projects such as Total's CLOV to boost push output higher by end 2014. Over the next decade, planned projects and the tie-back of additional discoveries to existing infrastructure will support strong growth in output over the course of our forecast period. However, we see risks that technical setbacks, industry wide pressure to cut costs, and potential regulatory issues could result in delays to anticipated volumes. An upcoming offshore licensing round and progress on resuming normal operations at the Angola LNG underscore the opportunities in the sector.

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Although Kuwait has formidable underground reserves, its singular-based economy, heavily reliant upon hydrocarbon exports, creates the incentives for the government to fully dominate the wider domestic industry. And as Kuwait's overwhelming dependence upon oil and natural gas exports draws in constant government intervention and control, a stifling investment climate develops within the country, ultimately diminishing the country's export potential as large investment is kept at bay and never fully realised. If trends do not change significantly, we expect Kuwait to miss its 2020 target of 4mn b/d, mainly caused by several delays to upstream projects. This same pattern will most likely be repeated in the country's natural gas sector, where expansion capacity will fall victim to the very same complex forces that are hurting the country's oil sector. While we expect downstream projects to eventually advance, we believe liquids supplies will disappoint as gas supply tightens, leading to an increasing reliance on imports.

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Conventional gas deposits would support Uzbekistan's hydrocarbons industry, though we project a continued decline in oil production. Consumption growth in both oil and gas will be curtailed by the diversion of gas to external markets to meet its export obligations, a failure to meet its domestic refined products demand and restrictions on fuel imports.