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BMI View: The election of Francois Hollande as the new French president and his continued affirmation on growth-led policies over spending cuts has prompted BMI to revise up its 2012 forecast for the country's construction industry value, from 0.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth to 1.2%. Between 2012 and the end of our 10-year forecast period in 2021, we expect the industry to grow by an annual average of 1.9%.

The big change to Canadian banking sector data since Q311 has been the shift in accounting standards to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as of November 2011. This has affected Canadian bank balance sheets in several different ways. Most importantly, residential mortgages that were securitised and insured by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, which had been held off the books, have now been recognised on balance sheets. This has substantially increased the aggregate recorded level of assets and loans in the system by roughly CAD350bn and CAD280bn, respectively. This has had a major knock-on effect on our estimates. For example, we had forecast loan growth of 9.0% in 2011. Loans had increased by 9.3% y-o-y as of October 2011, but following the accounting changes this growth figure rose to over 32% by the end of 2011. Furthermore, the IFRS restatements have lowered shareholders' equity (by around CAD18bn), and thus increased leverage ratios. The loan-deposit ratio has increased from around 1.00 to around 1.22, due to a minimal change in the deposits category of the balance sheet. The IFRS switch will not immediately affect Canadian banks' capital adequacy, as regulators are allowing a five-quarter transition period beginning in Q112 before it counts against Tier 1 capital requirements. Therefore we do not see any significant operational concerns arising from the Canada Commercial Banking Report Q2 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 22 accounting change. However, until historic data series are restated, the move to IFRS reporting means that previous years' data for assets, loans and equity will not be directly comparable. Our general outlook for loan and deposit growth in the sector is generally unchanged, however. Canadian banks had a strong 2011 financial year, with net income growth for the big six banks ranging from 16% (RBC, when only continuing operations are included) to 27% (Toronto-Dominion). Importantly, the major banks have lowered their provisions for credit losses by CAD5.3bn, a significant chunk of the total CAD23.8bn in total net income. We believe that low default rates and mortgage arrears justify the lowering of provisions. Strong earnings have meant that capital ratios remain strong even despite the IFRS changes, with Tier I capital ratios ranging from 12.0% for BMO to 14.7% for CIBC. We continue to believe that Canadian banks are among the safest in the world. However, we continue to see only modest prospects for domestic loan growth, and are currently forecasting 8.0% loan growth in 2012, followed by 6.5% in 2013. On the mortgage side (which represents over 50% of total loans) we believe the housing market has reached a plateau. The low-hanging fruit of low interest rates has been plucked, and with house price growth leveling off, we see y-o-y mortgage growth sliding from a peak of 12.9% in August 2011 to somewhere in the historic range of 7-9%. Consumer cred

Core Views We maintain our bearish view on the Australian economy despite improved economic growth numbers in Q211. Headline real GDP for the quarter increased by a seasonally adjusted 1.2% quarter-onquarter (q-o-q), reversing the 0.9% decline in Q111. With consumer confidence and overseas demand for Australian resources set to weaken owing to slowing global trade conditions, we believe any booster from post-flood reconstruction will only be temporary. With these factors in mind, we project growth to come in at only 1.8% in 2011, before decelerating further to 1.6% in 2012. The ruling Australian Labor Party's grip on power has become increasingly tenuous, and it has been scoring dangerously low in opinion polls. The introduction of the carbon tax in early H211 should provide some brief respite in terms of better support from the Australian Greens, a political ally in parliament. An Australian Labor Party defeat would have implications for a number of national issues, including broadband access, carbon tax and laws on industrial relations. Monetary policy will be kept accommodative in order to drive the post-disaster recovery efforts, with the benchmark official cash rate maintained at 4.75% until the end of 2011, although risks of earlier-than-expected easing are mounting. Indeed, headline inflation moderated to 3.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q311 from 3.6% in the preceding quarter, and should moderate further as consumer spending remains cautious amid weakening property prices. This should compel the Reserve Bank of Australia to progressively ease the benchmark rate in 2012, slashing a total of 100 basis points to just 3.75% by the end of 2012. Major Forecast Changes We upgraded our 2011 average forecast for the Australian dollar to US $1.0500/AUD from US $1.0200/AUD previously on the back of stronger currency performance in recent months. The average figure for 2012 is now US $0.9000/AUD , as a sharp slowdown in financial inflows on account of the weakening property market places downward pressure on the currency. Our monetary policy outlook has become considerably more dovish as we have downgraded the benchmark cash rate projections for 2012, ending the year at 3.75% (from 4.50% previously). Key Risks To Outlook A weaker-than-expected growth outturn in China would weaker the economic performance of Australia given that Chinese demand is the largest driver of Australian exports, including coal and iron ore. Should Chinese policymakers embark on another round of aggressive stimulus measures, then we could see demand for Australian exports rise, supporting real GDP growth and the Australian dollar. Canberra faces the risk of a widening fiscal gap if an Australian property slump turns into a crash. We highlight that a sharp fall in residential home prices would place immense strain on mortgageladen Australian banks. In order to prevent financial panic, government intervention would be needed in this

The homewares category is enjoying a very good performance, both in dining and kitchen products. Value growth was driven by growing demand for such products at the end of the review period, with an increasing number of consumers and families buying more dinnerware, utensils and beverageware. These products are not perceived as essential to have in large amounts, but as income levels rose more families purchased a greater number of such items to have more complete sets.

AFH products recorded sluggish retail volume sales growth of 1% in 2011. The most important factor underlying this was the continued harsh economic environment and sluggish sales to hotels and restaurants, which was further punctuated by the eurozone debt crisis and turbulence that followed during the second half of 2011. This resulted in fewer domestic, as well as foreign, customers in hotels and restaurants.

Apart from the regulatory environment surrounding incontinence products (ie subsidies), demographic trends are the most important factors behind growth for the category. As in most European countries, Sweden is facing an ageing population. In 2011 the population aged 65+ increased by 3% and since 2006 this age group has increased by 11%. This development makes the potential consumer base for incontinence products greater each year.

Having mounted a reasonably strong recovery from the impact of the economic crisis in 2010, in 2011 dishwashers recorded a substantial slowdown in volume and current value sales growth. Volume growth was also slower than the CAGR for the entire review period, while current value growth was only slightly faster than the 5-year average. This comparatively sluggish performance was mainly due to signs that the French economy was slipping back into recession. Worsening economic conditions...

Following implementation of the smoking ban by various local governments in their respective localities in 2010, a smoking ban was also declared in Metro Manila in the first half of 2011. The announcement was followed by a month-long information campaign to remind Filipinos of the Tobacco Regulation Act of 2003, which prohibits smoking in public areas. While the Metro Manila Development Authority ensured strict enforcement and monitoring of the smoking ban, there was not a significant impact on...

Belgian consumers are not traditionally tea drinkers, much preferring coffee over tea. They are nonetheless increasingly aware of the health benefits of tea and this realisation has had a positive impact on sales of certain types of tea, although not the wider tea category. Health and wellness is currently the driving force behind tea, particularly benefiting products such as green tea, slimming teas and herbal/traditional medicinal teas.

Sports and energy drinks continued to perform well in 2011, posting total volume growth of 9% and current value growth of 11%. Increasingly busy lifestyles helped drive the growth of sports and energy drinks in 2011, with the category enjoying slightly stronger volume growth than the previous year. Sports and energy drinks offer convenience as they help consumers to maintain their stamina and recover quickly after exercising.

Pouches continue to go from strength to strength in wet cat food. Visiting supermarkets consumers are now confronted with many shelves of pouches, with metal cans relegated to shelves at the bottom. 100ml aluminium/plastic pouches holds the highest filled volume share in wet cat food (and by far the highest unit volume share), with the slightly smaller 85g also rapidly gaining share. The success and permanence of pouches can be seen in the proliferation of multipacks. Packs containing 12...

GlobalData's pharmaceuticals report, "Namenda (Alzheimer's disease) - Analysis and Forecasts to 2022" provides Namenda global sales estimates. In addition, it covers detailed clinical assessment of the drug, factors impacting drug sales, competitive landscape, and analysis of sales performance during the forecast period (2002-2022). The report also includes information on Alzheimer's disease market. This report is built using data and information sourced from GlobalData's proprietary databases, primary and secondary research using Company's corporate website, SEC filings, investor presentations and featured press releases, both from company and industry-specific third party sources, put together with in-house analysis, by GlobalData's team of industry experts.

GlobalData's clinical trial report, "Hypoxemia Global Clinical Trials Review, H1, 2012" provides data on the Hypoxemia clinical trial scenario. This report provides elemental information and data relating to the clinical trials on Hypoxemia. It includes an overview of the trial numbers and their recruitment status as per the site of trial conduction across the globe. The databook offers a preliminary coverage of disease clinical trials by their phase, trial status, prominence of the sponsors and also provides briefing pertaining to the number of trials for the key drugs for treating Hypoxemia. This report is built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research and in-house analysis by GlobalData's team of industry experts.

While a large part of the market is yet to understand their technological and strategic significance, Mobile Network APIs play a critical part in carrier networks as a secondary stream of revenue. Mobile Network APIs capitalize on existing network infrastructure to create a vast array of business opportunities for carriers worldwide. In essence, these APIs allow carriers to disseminate a wealth of internal information or resources to third parties. This could entail everything from network QoS for video service delivery to Subscriber Data Management (SDM) for advertising and profiling. One key goal is to enable third party developers to offer services in return for revenues.

BMI's Philippines Defence & Security Report Q3 2012 examines the country's strategic position in the Asia Pacific region and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.

BMI View: Uncertainty over LNG hangs over the Croatian energy sector, with a decision over a proposed Adriatic hub still months away, while a floating LNG scheme has yet to find full support. Croatia's limited domestic upstream prospects leave it increasingly exposed to oil and gas imports.

BMI's Pakistan Defence & Security Report for Q312 examines the country's strategic position in the Asian region and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.

Our Europe team has a below-consensus view on Polish GDP growth for 2012. Retail sales data suggest that private consumption is already weakening. Commentators have focused on headline nominal retail sales growth in Q112, which grew by 12.9% on Q111, but missed less impressive volume numbers, which increased only 0.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q112. Inflation, and the lagged effect of a weak zloty in H211 on import prices in particular, explain much of this difference. According to an Ipsos-Demoskop survey, consumer confidence is also highly negative, although registering an improvement in March, however, where there is value to be had, like in the fast-growing discount space, strong growth is still anticipated.

BMI View: Saudi Arabia's commercial banks continue to benefit from the country's ongoing economic boom. Robust deposit inflows and strong domestic demand for credit have spurred lending, and we expect loose fiscal policy to keep the sector growing swiftly throughout 2012. The Saudi Arabian banking sector has long been among our regional favourites, and the sector is set to remain in good shape throughout 2012. Loose fiscal and monetary policy has cultivated demand for new credit, while strong aggregate balance sheet positions have left banks in a good position to ramp up lending. We see relatively few risks to the sector's outlook in 2012, and expect credit and asset growth to continue apace through the year. We forecast total assets to grow by 10.0% to SAR1.7trn (US$453.6bn) in 2012, compared with growth of 9.1% in 2011. Deposits Still Pouring In Since the beginning of 2011, the commercial banking sector in Saudi Arabia has been buoyed by strong economic growth and, in particular, by heavy government spending. Riyadh responded to the Arab Spring by ramping up public sector wages and making a series of one-off transfers to its citizens. The result was a sharp rise in bank deposits, and the sector's total stock of client deposits increased by 12.1% last year, standing at SAR1.1trn in January. Growth remains strong (coming in at 13.0% y-o-y in January), and while base effects coinciding with large bonuses granted to government workers early last year will kick in over the coming months, we nevertheless forecast total deposit growth of 9.0% in 2012. Robust deposit inflows have left the sector's aggregate balance sheet in good shape. Reliance on loan financing is low (accounting for just 14.3% of total liabilities) - indeed, 'other liabilities' fell by 0.7% y-oy in January - and the loans-to-deposits ratio stands at a healthy 0.82. With few concerns over asset quality (SAMA recorded a non-performing loans ratio of just 3.0% in 2010), banks would have little difficulty tapping credit markets even in the event of a slowdown in deposit inflows. This is particularly the case given the recent spike in oil prices, which will boost liquidity throughout the kingdom's financial system. No Let-Up In New Lending Abundant financing has allowed banks to rapidly expand their loan portfolios, with credit growth accelerating to 11.5% y-o-y to SAR903.5bn in January (compared with 5.9% in January 2011). There are several reasons to expect domestic demand for new loans to remain robust. Massive state spending on infrastructure projects will create investment opportunities for construction firms in the country, while interest rates are set to remain low in line with loose policy in the United States. Moreover, a strong economy will further spur demand, and the most recent Dun & Bradstreet business optimism survey records that 51% of non-hydrocarbon private sector companies planned to expand their businesses in the upcoming quarte

The Ukraine Petrochemicals Report examines the impact of trends in external markets on Ukraine's expanding chemicals industry, but raises concerns over weakness in feedstock supply - with the industry's profitability tied to oil price negotiations with Russia, its main supplier.

BMI expects the Venezuelan consumer electronics market to grow by around 7% in 2012, but the precarious economic environment will inhibit IT investment. PC market growth has held up relatively well but has lagged other countries. Businesses remain cautious while consumers face inflationary pressures and the resulting erosion of real wages. The threat of further currency devaluation is real, although this would most likely not be until after elections scheduled for 2012. However, there remain areas of opportunity, with continued IT investment by small and medium-sized enterprises due in part to a government tax subsidy. The energy, retail and financial services sectors should remain among key IT spending verticals.

BMI View: The discovery of billions of barrels of oil in the so-called subsalt oil province offshore Brazil has been one of the most significant developments in the global oil industry for many years. Regulatory reforms under former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva place much of the onus for developing those reserves on state-run Petrobras, although foreign companies will also play an important role. Crude production should grow rapidly over the coming years, with the country forecast to be producing 3.91mn b/d in 2016 and 5.89mn b/d in 2021

Economic growth is likely to slow in Canada in 2012, as overstretched households retrench their spending, added to weakening global conditions. We are therefore forecasting real GDP growth of 2.0% in 2012 and 2.3% in 2013. Our core view is that households will continue to restrain expenditure amid stretched balance sheets, and while income growth remains subdued. Reflecting these factors, several consumer sentiment indicators certainly suggest a slowdown in consumer activity as 2012 progresses.

Hartman Short Term Income Properties XIX, Inc. (HSTIP XIX), a corporation holding diversified income producing commercial real estate properties throughout the state of Texas, is pleased to announce that its net value per share has increased from an initial share valuation of $10.00/share to its current price of $11.86 per share as of December 31, 2011. This represents an 18.6% increase in value from the inception of the portfolio in January 2007.

Beer in Australia by Mintel Global Market Navigator provides you with annual year-end market size data, most recently updated in 2012. This market covers all alcoholic and non-alcoholic beers. Market size is based on retail (off trade) and non-retail (on trade and food industry) sales. Market size for Beer in Australia is given in litres with a minimum of five years' historical data. Market Forecast is provided for five years. Included with this snapshot is socio-economic data for Australia. Population, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Exchange Rates.